Росія 23 липня атакувала Одеський морський торговий порт крилатими ракетами типу «Калібр», повідомили в оперативному командуванні «Південь»
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«Цього тижня я відвідав українських військових, які навчаються із британськими збройними силами у Північному Йоркширі», повідомив прем’єр
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Президент України прийняв у Києві делегацію Палати представників Конгресу Сполучених Штатів
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«Якби санкції і зброя були неефективні, в Кремлі не задіювали би шалені ресурси задля їхньої дискредитації», зазначив речник МЗС
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Водночас вони залишаються серед бенефіціарів іншої російської компанії – ООО «Платинумфильм»
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«Вони не оголошують повну, відкриту мобілізацію. Тому що це, по суті, визнання того, що їхні плани, які вони будували з початком кампанії, вони провалилися. І Путін не буде визнавати цього»
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«Менше ніж 24 години знадобилося РФ, щоб ракетним ударом по території порту Одеси поставити під сумнів домовленості й обіцянки, дані нею ООН і Туреччині»
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From his small office in Singapore, Kelvin Pang is ready to wager a $23 million payday that the worst of the chip shortage is not over for automakers – at least in China.
Pang has bought 62,000 microcontrollers, chips that help control a range of functions from car engines and transmissions to electric vehicle power systems and charging, which cost the original buyer $23.80 each in Germany.
He’s now looking to sell them to auto suppliers in the Chinese tech hub of Shenzhen for $375 apiece. He says he has turned down offers for $100 each, or $6.2 million for the whole bundle, which is small enough to fit in the back seat of a car and is packed for now in a warehouse in Hong Kong.
“The automakers have to eat,” Pang told Reuters. “We can afford to wait.”
The 58-year-old, who declined to say what he had paid for the microcontrollers (MCUs), makes a living trading excess electronics inventory that would otherwise be scrapped, connecting buyers in China with sellers abroad.
The global chip shortage over the past two years – caused by pandemic supply chaos combined with booming demand – has transformed what had been a high-volume, low-margin trade into one with the potential for wealth-spinning deals, he says.
Automotive chip order times remain long around the world, but brokers like Pang and thousands like him are focusing on China, which has become ground zero for a crunch that the rest of the industry is gradually moving beyond.
Globally, new orders are backed up by an average of about a year, according to a Reuters survey of 100 automotive chips produced by the five leading manufacturers.
To counter the supply squeeze, global automakers like General Motors, Ford and Nissan have moved to secure better access through a playbook that has included negotiating directly with chipmakers, paying more per part and accepting more inventory.
For China though, the outlook is bleaker, according to interviews with more than 20 people involved in the trade from automakers, suppliers and brokers to experts at China’s government-affiliated auto research institute CATARC.
Despite being the world’s largest producer of cars and leader in electric vehicles (EVs), China relies almost entirely on chips imported from Europe, the United States and Taiwan. Supply strains have been compounded by a zero-COVID lockdown in auto hub Shanghai that ended last month.
As a result, the shortage is more acute than elsewhere and threatens to curb the nation’s EV momentum, according to CATARC, the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. A fledgling domestic chipmaking industry is unlikely to be in a position to cope with demand within the next two to three years, it says.
Pang, for his part, sees China’s shortage continuing through 2023 and deems it dangerous to hold inventory after that. The one risk to that view, he says: a sharper economic slowdown that could depress demand earlier.
Forecasts ‘hardly possible’
Computer chips, or semiconductors, are used in the thousands in every conventional and electric vehicle. They help control everything from deploying airbags and automating emergency braking to entertainment systems and navigation.
The Reuters survey conducted in June took a sample of chips, produced by Infineon, Texas Instruments, NXP, STMicroelectronics and Renesas, which perform a diverse range of functions in cars.
New orders via distributors are on hold for an average lead time of 49 weeks – deep into 2023, according to the analysis, which provides a snapshot of the global shortage though not a regional breakdown. Lead times range from six to 198 weeks.
German chipmaker Infineon told Reuters it is “rigorously investing and expanding manufacturing capacities worldwide” but said shortages may last until 2023 for chips outsourced to foundries.
“Since the geopolitical and macroeconomic situation has deteriorated in recent months, reliable assessments regarding the end of the present shortages are hardly possible right now,” Infineon said in a statement.
Taiwan chipmaker United Microelectronics told Reuters it has been able to reallocate some capacity to auto chips due to weaker demand in other segments. “On the whole, it is still challenging for us to meet the aggregate demand from customers,” the company said.
TrendForce analyst Galen Tseng told Reuters that if auto suppliers needed 100 PMIC chips – which regulate voltage from the battery to more than 100 applications in an average car – they were currently only getting around 80.
Urgently seeking chips
The tight supply conditions in China contrast with the improved supply outlook for global automakers. Volkswagen, for example, said in late June it expected chip shortages to ease in the second half of the year.
The chairman of Chinese EV maker Nio, William Li, said last month it was hard to predict which chips would be in short supply. Nio regularly updates its “risky chip list” to avoid shortages of any of the more than 1,000 chips needed to run production.
In late May, Chinese EV maker Xpeng Motors pleaded for chips with an online video featuring a Pokemon toy that had also sold out in China. The bobbing duck-like character waves two signs: “urgently seeking” and “chips.”
“As the car supply chain gradually recovers, this video captures our supply-chain team’s current condition,” Xpeng CEO He Xiaopeng posted on Weibo, saying his company was struggling to secure “cheap chips” needed to build cars.
All roads lead to Shenzhen
The scramble for workarounds has led automakers and suppliers to China’s main chip trading hub of Shenzhen and the “gray market,” brokered supplies legally sold but not authorized by the original manufacturer, according to two people familiar with the trade at a Chinese EV maker and an auto supplier.
The gray market carries risks because chips are sometimes recycled, improperly labeled, or stored in conditions that leave them damaged.
“Brokers are very dangerous,” said Masatsune Yamaji, research director at Gartner, adding that their prices were 10 to 20 times higher. “But in the current situation, many chip buyers need to depend on the brokers because the authorized supply chain cannot support the customers, especially the small customers in automotive or industrial electronics.”
Pang said many Shenzhen brokers were newcomers drawn by the spike in prices but unfamiliar with the technology they were buying and selling. “They only know the part number. I ask them: Do you know what this does in the car? They have no idea.”
While the volume held by brokers is hard to quantify, analysts say it is far from enough to meet demand.
“It’s not like all the chips are somewhere hidden and you just need to bring them to the market,” said Ondrej Burkacky, senior partner at McKinsey.
When supply normalizes, there may be an asset bubble in the inventories of unsold chips sitting in Shenzhen, analysts and brokers cautioned.
“We can’t hold on for too long, but the automakers can’t hold on either,” Pang said.
Chinese self-sufficiency
China, where advanced chip design and manufacturing still lag overseas rivals, is investing to decrease its reliance on foreign chips. But that will not be easy, especially given the stringent requirements for auto-grade chips.
MCUs make up about 30% of the total chip costs in a car, but they are also the hardest category for China to achieve self-sufficiency in, said Li Xudong, senior manager at CATARC, adding that domestic players had only entered the lower end of the market with chips used in air conditioning and seating controls.
“I don’t think the problem can be solved in two to three years,” CATARC chief engineer Huang Yonghe said in May. “We are relying on other countries, with 95% of the wafers imported.”
Chinese EV maker BYD, which has started to design and manufacture IGBT transistor chips, is emerging as a domestic alternative, CATARC’s Li said.
“For a long time, China has seen its inability to be totally independent on chip production as a major security weakness,” said Victor Shih, professor of political science at the University of California, San Diego.
With time, China could build a strong domestic industry as it did when it identified battery production as a national priority, Shih added.
“It led to a lot of waste, a lot of failures, but then it also led to two or three giants that now dominate the global market.”
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Britain’s Defense Ministry said early Saturday that in the last 48 hours heavy fighting has been taking place as Ukrainian forces have continued their offensive against Russian forces in Kherson Oblast, west of the River Dnipro.
In the statement posted to Twitter the ministry said “Russia is likely attempting to slow the Ukrainian attack using artillery fire along the natural barrier of the Ingulets River, a tributary of the Dnipro. Simultaneously, the supply lines of the Russian force west of the Dnipro are increasingly at risk.”
In another development, the credit rating firms of Fitch and Scope have downgraded Ukraine to just one step above default. The move followed Ukraine’s request for a debt payment freeze. The rating agencies said that makes a default on the debt more likely.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has promised Ukraine a new $270 million security assistance package, which will include four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS.
Ukraine’s military has already deployed at least eight HIMARS to the front lines in its fight against Russia, while another four are either on the ground or on their way.
The latest U.S. pledge will bring the total number of HIMARS to 16. In addition, Ukraine has deployed six medium- to long-range rocket systems from Germany and Britain.
Ukraine and Russia signed separate deals Friday, opening the way for Ukraine to export millions of tons of grain worldwide.
Ukraine, one of the world’s major breadbaskets, has been unable to export its grain because of the Russian invasion.
“About 20 million tons of last year’s grain harvest will be exported. And also it will be possible to sell this year’s harvest, … already being harvested,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said during his daily address Friday. “These are the incomes of farmers, the entire agricultural sector and the state budget. These are jobs. These are funds for next year’s sowing season.”
Zelenskyy estimated that his country currently has approximately $10 billion worth of grain.
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Judges at the United Nations’ highest court on Friday dismissed preliminary objections by Myanmar to a case alleging the Southeast Asian nation is responsible for genocide against the Rohingya ethnic minority.
The decision establishing the International Court of Justice’s jurisdiction sets the stage for hearings airing evidence of atrocities against the Rohingya that human rights groups and a U.N. probe say breach the 1948 Genocide Convention. In March, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the violent repression of the Rohingya population in Myanmar, which was formerly known as Burma, amounts to genocide.
Tun Khin, president of the Burmese Rohingya Organization UK, welcomed the decision, saying 600,000 Rohingya “are still facing genocide,” while “1 million people in Bangladesh camps, they are waiting for a hope for justice.”
The African nation of Gambia filed the case in 2019 amid international outrage at the treatment of the Rohingya, hundreds of thousands of whom fled to neighboring Bangladesh amid a brutal crackdown by Myanmar forces in 2017. It argued that both Gambia and Myanmar were parties to the 1948 convention and that all signatories had a duty to ensure it was enforced.
Judges at the court agreed.
Reading a summary of the decision, the court’s president, U.S. Judge Joan E. Donoghue, said: “Any state party to the Genocide Convention may invoke the responsibility of another state party including through the institution of proceedings before the court.”
A small group of pro-Rohingya protesters gathered outside the court’s headquarters, the Peace Palace, ahead of the decision with a banner reading: “Speed up delivering justice to Rohingya. The genocide survivors can’t wait for generations.”
One protester stamped on a large photograph of Myanmar’s military government leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.
The court rejected arguments raised at hearings in February by lawyers representing Myanmar that the case should be tossed out because the world court only rules in disputes between states and the Rohingya complaint was brought by Gambia on behalf of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.
The judges also dismissed Myanmar’s claim that Gambia could not file the case as it was not directly linked to the events in Myanmar and that a legal dispute did not exist between the two countries before the case was filed.
Myanmar’s representative, Ko Ko Hlaing, the military government’s minister for international cooperation, said his nation “will try our utmost to defend our country and to protect our national interest.”
Gambia’s attorney general and justice minister, Dawda Jallow, said, “We are very pleased that justice has been done.”
The Netherlands and Canada have backed Gambia, saying in 2020 that the country “took a laudable step towards ending impunity for those committing atrocities in Myanmar and upholding this pledge. Canada and the Netherlands consider it our obligation to support these efforts, which are of concern to all of humanity.”
However, the court ruled Friday that it “would not be appropriate” to send the two countries copies of documents and legal arguments filed in the case.
Myanmar’s military launched what it called a clearance campaign in Rakhine state in 2017 in the aftermath of an attack by a Rohingya insurgent group. More than 700,000 Rohingya fled into neighboring Bangladesh. Myanmar security forces have been accused of mass rapes, killings and torching thousands of Rohingya homes.
In 2019, lawyers representing Gambia at the court outlined their allegations of genocide by showing judges maps, satellite images and graphic photos of the military campaign. That led the court to order Myanmar to do all it can to prevent genocide against the Rohingya. The interim ruling was intended to protect the minority while the case is decided in The Hague, a process likely to take years.
The International Court of Justice rules on disputes between states. It is not linked to the International Criminal Court (ICC), also based in The Hague, which holds individuals accountable for atrocities. Prosecutors at the ICC are investigating crimes committed against the Rohingya who were forced to flee to Bangladesh.
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The United States will send Ukraine more precision rocket systems along with hundreds of thousands of rounds of artillery shells, part of a new security assistance package unveiled Friday aimed at giving Kyiv an upper hand in what Western military officials describe as a grinding war of attrition with Russia.
The highlight of the $270 million U.S. pledge, the 16th since Russian forces invaded Ukraine, is the addition of four more High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, each with a range of about 70 kilometers, which U.S. officials credit for helping to stymie Russia’s advance in the Donbas.
“We’re seeing Ukraine employing very precise, very accurate targeting of critical Russian positions,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters Friday, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set out by the Pentagon.
“They’re [Russia] paying a high price for every inch of territory they try to take or hold.”
Ukraine’s military has deployed at least eight HIMARS to the front lines in its fight with Russian forces, while another four are either on the ground or on their way.
The latest U.S. pledge will bring the total number of HIMARS to 16. In addition, Ukraine has deployed six medium- to long-range rocket systems from Germany and Britain.
Russia’s Defense Ministry earlier Friday said it had destroyed four of the U.S.-made HIMARS in recent fighting. But U.S. and Ukrainian officials quickly rejected the claims as nonsense, though not for a lack of Russian efforts.
“They’re probably the most hunted things in all of Ukraine,” according to a senior U.S. military official, who, like the U.S. defense official, also spoke on the condition of anonymity.
“This speaks to the exceptional abilities of the Ukrainians,” the military official added. “The ability for these men and women to shoot, move and stay alive is just exceptional.”
U.S. intelligence estimates suggest Ukrainian forces have used the HIMARS to take out more than 100 “high-value” Russian targets, and that nearly a month after the first HIMARS were introduced on the battlefield, Russian forces have struggled to find an answer.
“The Russians are attempting to mitigate those effects through a number of means – camouflage, movement, changing locations,” the senior U.S. military official said. “It doesn’t seem to be that good.”
Contrary to U.S. and other Western assessments, Russia’s Ministry of Defense on Friday insisted on its Telegram feed that Ukraine “is suffering considerable losses of armament.”
And Russian officials continue to express confidence that Ukraine’s forces will eventually succumb.
‘Peace — on our terms’
“Russia will achieve all its goals. There will be peace – on our terms,” former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now chief of the Kremlin’s Security Council, said earlier this week.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov likewise threatened that Russia would expand the scope of its so-called special operation in Ukraine if the West continued to arm Ukraine’s forces.
Increasingly, Western officials are downplaying such threats as fanciful thinking.
“I think they’re about to run out of steam,” Richard Moore, the chief of Britain’s MI6 intelligence service, told an audience Thursday at the annual Aspen Security Forum in Aspen, Colorado.
At the same forum on Friday, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, said Russian troops in Ukraine are facing “significant difficulties” as they attempt to muster the type of force needed to make meaningful gains.
And all indications are that more U.S. security assistance will be coming.
“It is our strategic objective to ensure that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is not a strategic success for [President Vladimir] Putin, that it is a strategic failure,” Sullivan said. “That means both that he be denied his objectives in Ukraine and that Russia pay a longer-term price in terms of the elements of its national power, so that the lesson that goes forth to would-be aggressors elsewhere is if you try things like this, it comes at a cost that is not worth bearing.”
In addition to the HIMARS, the security package announced Friday includes more rockets, 360,000 rounds of artillery and anti-armor systems, all slated for immediate delivery.
A second part of the package, up to 580 Phoenix Ghost drones, will start arriving next month.
U.S. officials said Ukrainian forces had used a previous shipment of more than 100 of the drones to great effect against Russia’s armored vehicles, and the goal is now to make sure Ukraine has a “steady supply.”
US-made jets
The U.S. is also looking at eventually providing Ukraine with U.S.-made fighter jets, possibly to replace Soviet-era MiGs and Sukhoi jets that Ukraine is currently using.
“This is not something that’s going to happen anytime soon,” John Kirby, the National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications, told reporters Friday, describing the discussions as “preliminary explorations.”
“Integrating and operating any kind of aircraft, especially an advanced fighter aircraft … that’s a difficult endeavor,” Kirby said.
Despite repeated requests from Kyiv, U.S. officials said they will not provide Ukraine with the Army Tactical Missile Systems, with a 300-kilometer range and the ability to reach deep into Russian territory.
“While a key goal of the United States is to do the needful to support and defend Ukraine, another key goal is to ensure that we do not end up in a circumstance where we’re heading down the road towards a third world war,” Sullivan said.
Some information for this report came from The Associated Press and Reuters.
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Зеленський розповів, що підтримує постійний зв’язок із Джонсоном, назвавши його «великим другом України»
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У середині липня російське Міністерство внутрішніх справ оголосило Гордона у розшук
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Міністерство відзначає, що домовленість стала можливою завдяки посередництву Туреччини та «активній ролі Генерального секретаря ООН»
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Новий пакет допомоги також передбачає надання 500 дронів, які підриваються, вражаючи цілі, і 36 тисяч артилерійських боєприпасів
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The United Nations, Turkey, Russia, and Ukraine signed four-way deal in Istanbul Friday intended to deliver Ukrainian grain to world markets.
The deal is the result of months of negotiations as world food prices soar amid increasing grain shortages connected to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres heralded the agreement as a major diplomatic breakthrough.
“Today there is a beacon on the Black Sea. A beacon of hope—a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief—in a world that needs it more than ever.”
Guterres praised Turkey’s role in securing the agreement. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said the deal offers the opportunity to ease the threat of global hunger and give hope for a resolution to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Under the agreement, cargo ships will carry grain from three Ukrainian ports, including Odesa. Using safe channels, Ukrainian pilots will guide the vessels through the heavily mined waters. The ships will then traverse the Black Sea in specially created corridors to Istanbul’s Bosphorus waterway and on to world markets.
All cargo ships will be checked by a Joint Coordination Center set up in Istanbul to ensure they are not carrying weapons into Ukraine. Ukrainian, Russian, U.N., and Turkish officials will staff the center.
Moscow has promised not to launch hostilities in the vicinity of cargo ship routes and the port areas involved in grain exports.
The U.N. said the agreement could take weeks to take effect but aims to export around 5 million tons of grain a month.
The deal was reached as world food prices soared due to grain shortages. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest suppliers of grain. Earlier this week, U.N. food chief David Beasley said Ukrainian grain shipments couldn’t come soon enough.
“[It’s] Essential that we allow these ports to open because this is not just about Ukraine,” he said. “This is about the poorest of the poor around the world who are on the brink of starvation.”
Ankara has been hosting and mediating the four-way talks. Turkey, a NATO member, has sought to play a balancing role in the conflict, with President Erdogan maintaining close ties with his Ukrainian and Russian counterparts.
Sinan Ulgen of the Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies, a research organization in Istanbul, says the successful grain deal will vindicate Erdogan’s stance.
“I think Turkey’s careful balancing act will continue and there may even be a degree of appreciation in the West for the diplomatic role of Turkey in particular if Turkey is able to deliver on the food embargo quest,” Ulgensaid.
Under the grain deal, Turkey is set to continue playing a pivotal role in its application. The agreement will need to be renewed on a 120-day basis, meaning Turkish diplomacy will likely be critical to its continuation.
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