Daily: 04/15/2022

Німеччина збільшить бюджет військової допомоги до 2 мільярдів євро, значна частина піде Україні – міністр

«Кошти значною мірою підуть для України», – написав у твітері міністр фінансів Німеччини Крістіан Лінднер

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‘Detest Me With Moderation,’ Paris Attacks Defendant Pleads

The only surviving member of the Islamic State attack team that terrorized Paris in 2015 asked Friday for forgiveness and expressed condolences for the victims, wiping away tears during court testimony as he pleaded with survivors to “detest me with moderation.”

For years, Salah Abdeslam was silent about what happened November 13, 2015, in the Bataclan theater, Paris cafes and the national stadium, and the 130 people who were killed. After his trial opened last year, he had a few outbursts of extremist bravado, but for months he refused to answer most questions.

Then this week, his words started flowing, in lengthy testimony that at times contradicted earlier statements. His words at times prompted angry outbursts from the public.

Survivors and victims’ families, who hope the extensive trial helps them find justice and clarity, had mixed reactions.

Abdeslam said the mastermind of the attacks persuaded him two days beforehand to join the team of suicide bombers. The next day, Abdeslam said, his brother Brahim showed him the cafe in northern Paris where Salah was meant to detonate himself in a crowd.

‘I wasn’t ready’

“For me, it was a shock. I didn’t know how to react. I showed that I wasn’t ready for that,” Abdeslam told the court. “He ended up convincing me.”

He recounted donning an explosive belt that night, as his brother and other Islamic State extremists who had fought in Syria were fanned out around Paris mounting parallel attacks.

“I enter the cafe, I order a drink,” Abdeslam said. “I was thinking. I looked at people laughing, dancing. And that’s when I knew that I couldn’t do it.”

“I told myself, ‘I’m not going to do it,’ ” he said, citing a sense of humanity.

A police explosives expert has told the court that the suicide belt was faulty, but Abdeslam testified that he disabled it.

Last month, he expressed regret that he hadn’t followed through on the attack.

But this week, he started showing signs of remorse.

“There are no words for this,” he said.

Tearful plea for forgiveness

Questioned Friday by his lawyer about his mother, and her loss over her older son’s death, Abdeslam started to cry for the first time since the trial began in September, according to French media reports.

“I ask you today to detest me with moderation,” he told the victims. “I offer my condolences, and I ask forgiveness for all the victims.”

He has also repeatedly asked forgiveness of three fellow defendants being tried for helping him escape.

Georges Salines, whose daughter Lola was killed in the Bataclan, was quoted by France-Info radio as saying: “Abdeslam is trying to settle a mountain of contradictions in his head. He’s trying to resolve them, but his path will be long.”

After leaving the cafe, Abdeslam described desperately attempting to reach friends to ask for help and taking a taxi across Paris to the suburb of Montrouge, where he said he removed the detonator from his explosive vest and tossed the vest in a garbage bin. He hid out at first near Paris, then fled with friends to Brussels, where he was arrested four months later.

He faces life in prison if convicted on murder charges.

The more than 2,400 civil parties to the case present their final arguments next month, and the verdict is expected on June 24. It’s among the biggest trials in modern French history.

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У Росії хочуть збільшити держвитрати на поховання російських військових – ЗМІ

У Росії Федеральна служба безпеки попросила уряд збільшити на 17% асигнування на поховання та надгробки для військових, повідомляє російська служба ВВС.

За даними видання, компенсація витрат на поховання одного загиблого на військовій службі може зрости на 7 800 – 11 000 рублів до 56 400 – 74 200 рублів залежно від його статусу та місця поховання.

ФСБ пояснює прохання виділити додаткові похоронні гроші тим, що ці витрати не потрапили до переліку соціальних виплат, що щороку індексуються.

25 березня Генеральний штаб збройних сил Росії лише вдруге за понад місяць масштабної війни проти України оприлюднив дані про втрати російських військ, згідно з якими 1 351 російський військовослужбовець загинув, ще 3 825 – зазнали поранень​.

7 квітня речник президента Росії Володимира Путіна Дмитро Пєсков в інтервʼю Sky News визнав, що російські війська зазнали «значних втрат» в Україні.

За оцінками НАТО, під час військових дій могли бути вбиті від 7 до 15 тисяч російських військових, писало видання Time ще 24 березня. При цьому разом із пораненими загальні втрати військ Росії можуть сягати 30–40 тисяч людей.

За останніми даними українського Генштабу, у війні проти України російські війська втратили близько 20 000 особового складу.

Незалежного підтвердження даних про втрати армії РФ в Україні наразі немає.

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Генштаб ЗСУ: спроба штурму військами РФ Мар’їнки – безуспішна

Зруйнований обстрілами російських військових центр дитячо-юнацької творчості, Мар’їнка, 14 квітня 2022 року

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Майже 1,5 млн людей в Україні залишилися без доступу до водопровідної води – омбудсмен

Люди змушені використовувати воду з брудних джерел – річок, озер і навіть калюж

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United Nations Weekly Roundup: April 9-16

Editor’s note: Here is a fast take on what the international community has been up to this past week, as seen from the United Nations perch.

Impacts of Ukraine war reverberate globally

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Wednesday that because of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the developing world is facing a “perfect storm” threatening to devastate many of its economies. He said 1.7 billion people could be affected by disruptions in food, energy and finance systems.

UN Chief: Ukraine War Fallout Threatens Economic Crisis in Developing World

 

Sexual violence, trafficking growing in Ukrainian conflict

The United Nations said Monday that Ukrainian women and children are at heightened risk of sexual violence, rape and trafficking as reports grow of such violations. U.N. Women Executive Director Sima Bahous told the Security Council that young women and unaccompanied teenagers are at particular risk.

UN: Sexual Violence, Trafficking Increasing in Ukraine War

 

ICC prosecutor: Ukraine a ‘crime scene’

International Criminal Court prosecutor Karim Khan visited the Ukrainian town of Bucha on Tuesday, as workers dug up bodies wrapped in black plastic bags from mass graves. He said the country has become a “crime scene.” His office has opened an investigation into alleged crimes falling under the court’s jurisdiction.

As Calls Grow for Justice on Ukraine, ICC Steps Forward

 

Millions of South Sudanese face growing hunger, famine

The U.N. said this week that more than 7 million South Sudanese will be facing a food crisis by July because of floods, drought and armed clashes. About 87,000 people in the Pibor administrative area and parts of Jonglei, Lakes and Unity states are also likely to be at catastrophic levels of famine by July. About 2.9 million people will be just one step lower, at emergency levels.

South Sudan Facing Food Crisis

 

Move in General Assembly to hold Security Council veto holders accountable

Nearly 40 countries plan to bring a draft resolution to the U.N. General Assembly that seeks to hold the five veto-wielding countries in the Security Council accountable when they exercise that right. If adopted, the resolution would require the General Assembly to meet when one of the five permanent Security Council members — Britain, China, France, Russia or the United States — uses its veto to block adoption of a council resolution.

UN Security Council Veto Holders Could Face Accountability

 

African states abstain on Russia resolutions, may signal revival of NAM

Some African nations’ repeated abstentions on U.S.-led resolutions condemning Russia at the United Nations could be a subtle signal for the revival of the Non-Aligned Movement, analysts say.

African States May Be Pushing to Revive Non-Aligned Movement, Analysts Say

 

In brief

Secretary-General Guterres said Wednesday that despite U.N. efforts, he does not think a nationwide humanitarian cease-fire will happen right now in Ukraine. He is hopeful, however, that several proposals the U.N. made for local cease-fires, humanitarian corridors, humanitarian assistance and civilian evacuations might still be possible, and he is awaiting a response from Russia.

The United Nations warned Thursday that as many as 6 million Somalis could face the risk of famine if the rainy season fails as expected and global food prices continue to rise. Three poor consecutive rainy seasons have deepened the country’s drought, plunging millions of people to crisis levels of food insecurity. Somalia imports 85% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia, and the war there has also complicated the country’s food crisis. A humanitarian response plan requesting $1.5 billion is only 4.4% funded.

The U.N. says it continues to be concerned about the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Myanmar. More than 900,000 people are displaced, including more than 560,000 who have been uprooted because of violence since the military coup in February 2021. The U.N. Refugee Agency estimates that 35,700 people from Myanmar have crossed into neighboring countries. A humanitarian appeal for $826 million to assist 6.2 million people is only 4% funded.

 

Quote of note

“When the perpetrators walk free, the survivors walk in fear, carrying the burden of ostracism and shame.”

— Pramila Patten, special representative of the secretary-general on sexual violence in conflict, to the U.N. Security Council on the need for accountability.

 

What we are watching next week

On April 19, the U.N. Security Council will be briefed on the situation in Ukraine by the director general of the International Organization for Migration as well as by the U.N. Refugee Agency. More than 4.7 million people have fled Ukraine since Russia invaded on February 24

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Russia Says It Struck Kyiv Missile Factory After Its Flagship Sinks in Black Sea

The flagship of Russia’s Black Sea fleet has sunk after what Kyiv said was a Ukrainian missile strike, dealing one of the heaviest blows yet to Moscow’s war effort and providing a stunning symbol of Kyiv’s resistance against a better-armed foe.

Kyiv says it hit the cruiser Moskva with missiles fired from the coast. Russia did not confirm the attack but said the ship sank while being towed in stormy seas after a fire caused by an explosion of ammunition. Moscow said more than 500 sailors had been evacuated. There was no independent confirmation of the fate of the crew.

Although Russia did not acknowledge that Ukrainian missiles had hit the ship, early on Friday it struck what it described as a factory in Kyiv that made and repaired anti-ship missiles, in apparent retaliation.

The Moskva was by far Russia’s largest vessel in the Black Sea fleet, equipped with guided missiles to attack the shore and shoot down planes, and radar to provide air defense cover for the fleet.

On the first day of the war, February 24, the ship ordered Ukrainian defenders of an island outpost to surrender and they radioed back an obscenity, an event marked on a postage stamp that Kyiv released hours before saying it had struck it.

In an overnight address, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy partially quoted that epithet, paying homage to “those who showed that Russian ships can go — only down to the bottom.”

Russia has used its naval power to blockade Ukrainian ports and threaten a potential amphibious landing along the coast. Without its flagship, its ability to menace Ukraine from the sea could be crippled.

“If reports of Moskva’s sinking prove true it will be emblematic of Russia’s overall military effort thus far,” tweeted Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia’s military, who called it a “major loss for the Russian navy.”

No warship of such size has been sunk during conflict since Argentina’s General Belgrano, which was torpedoed by the British in the 1982 Falklands war.

Blasts in Kyiv

Kyiv was hit Friday by some of the most powerful explosions heard since Russian forces withdrew from the area two weeks ago. Moscow said it had struck a plant in capital that made and repaired Ukrainian missiles, including anti-ship missiles.

“The number and scale of missile strikes on targets in Kyiv will increase in response to any terrorist attacks or acts of sabotage on Russian territory committed by the Kyiv nationalist regime,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement.

Kirill Kyrylo, 38, a worker at a car repair shop, said he had seen three blasts hit an industrial building across the street, causing a blaze that was later put out by firefighters.

“The building was on fire, and I had to hide behind my car,” he said, pointing out the shattered glass of the repair shop and bits of metal that had flown over from the burning building across the street.

Russia’s defense ministry also said it had captured the Ilyich steel works in Mariupol, one of the last industrial areas holding out in the besieged eastern city that has seen the war’s heaviest fighting and the worst humanitarian catastrophe.

Ukraine said it had repelled Russian offensives in the town of Popasna and Rubizhne, in an area north of Mariupol. Both reports could not be independently confirmed.

Russia pulled its troops out of northern Ukraine this month after a huge, armored assault on Kyiv was repelled at the outskirts of the capital.

Moscow now says its main war aim is capturing the Donbas, an eastern region of two provinces that are already partly held by Russian-backed separatists and that Russia wants Kyiv to cede.

It has sent a new column of thousands of troops into the east for what Ukraine anticipates will be a major assault.

Moscow says it hopes to seize all of Mariupol soon, which would be the only big city it has captured so far.

The Black Sea port, home to 400,000 people before the war, has been reduced to rubble by seven weeks of siege and bombardment, with tens of thousands of people trapped inside.

Thousands of civilians have died there.

Russia initially described its aims in Ukraine as disarming its neighbor and defeating nationalists there. Kyiv and its Western allies say those are bogus justifications for an unprovoked war of aggression that has driven a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes.

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Китай влаштував військові навчання у відповідь на візит делегації США до Тайваню

Шість американських конгресменів прибули до Тайваню 14 квітня

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Через сутички у Єрусалимі на Храмовій горі постраждали понад 150 людей

У Єрусалимі на Храмовій горі внаслідок сутичок постраждали 150 людей. Щонайменше 300 палестинців затримані, троє ізраїльських поліцейських поранені.

Масові сутички виникли у п’ятницю вранці, 15 квітня, під час ранкової молитви на Храмовій горі з нагоди другої п’ятниці священного для мусульман місяця Рамадан.

Як повідомляють ізраїльські ЗМІ, сотні молодих людей з прапорами Палестинської автономії та радикального палестинського угруповання «Хамас» пройшли маршем Старим містом Єрусалима. Потім вони почали кидати каміння та фаєри в юдеїв, що перебували біля Стіни плачу.

Поліція Ізраїлю намагалася витіснити учасників сутичок із Храмової гори, але вони забарикадувалися у мечеті Аль-Акса. Там було каміння та арматура. Поліцейські застосували гумові кулі, шумові бомби та сльозогінний газ. У результаті порядок на Храмовій горі було відновлено.

Радикальне палестинське угруповання «Хамас» та інші радикальні угруповання засудили дії поліцейських. У зв’язку з єврейським святом Песах спецслужби Ізраїлю приведені в підвищену готовність.

Аль-Акса є третім найсвятішим в ісламі і також шанується євреями як місце розташування двох стародавніх храмів.

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Глава ЦРУ: не можна легковажно ставитись до ядерних погроз Москви

Директор Центрального розвідувального управління США Вільям Бернс вважає, що до загрози застосування Росією тактичної ядерної зброї або ядерної зброї малої потужності в Україні не можна ставитися легковажно, «з огляду на можливий відчай президента Путіна», якщо йому не вдасться досягти подібності перемоги у цій війні. Про це повідомляє «Голос Америки».

Однак Центральне розвідувальне управління, незважаючи на «риторичні заяви» Кремля про приведення ядерного арсеналу в стан підвищеної бойової готовності, не має практичних доказів того, що Москва насправді планує піти на такі крайні заходи, наголосив Бернс, виступаючи 14 квітня у Технологічному інституті штату Джорджія.

Днями заступник голови Ради безпеки Росії Дмитро Медведєв попередив НАТО, що Москва розмістить ядерну зброю та гіперзвукові ракети в Калінінграді на узбережжі Балтійського моря, якщо Швеція та Фінляндія приєднаються до Альянсу.

За словами Бернса, ухвалюючи рішення про військову операцію, Путін очікував швидкої капітуляції української армії та перемоги російських сил з мінімальними втратами і не передбачав жорстких санкцій Заходу, а також вважав, що валютні резерви захистять російську економіку від санкцій. Путін виявився неправим, сказав Бернс.

Через сім тижнів після початку війни Україна не зламана, а Росія зазнає колосальних матеріальних та репутаційних втрат, заявив глава ЦРУ.

Росія має великий арсенал тактичної ядерної зброї та ядерної зброї малої потужності, розрахованої для застосування на полі бою. За оцінками експертів, у ньому близько 2000 одиниць.

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До Києва приїхала мер Парижа – Кличко

«Ми підписали Угоду про встановлення дружніх відносин між нашими містами – Києвом та Парижем»

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How France’s Presidential Election Could Impact Ukraine War 

The capital of France may be thousands of miles from the battlefields of eastern Ukraine, but what happens in French voting stations this month could have repercussions there. 

Far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has close ties to Russia and wants to weaken the European Union and NATO, which could undercut Western efforts to stop Russia’s war on Ukraine. Le Pen is trying to unseat centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who has a slim lead in polls ahead of France’s April 24 presidential runoff election. 

Here are some of the ways the French election could impact the war in Ukraine: 

Arming Ukraine 

Macron’s government has sent 100 million euros worth of weaponry to Ukraine in recent weeks and said Wednesday it will send more as part of a Western military aid effort. France has been a major source of military support for Ukraine since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and supported separatist fighters in eastern Ukraine. 

Le Pen expressed reservations Wednesday about supplying Ukraine with additional arms. She said, if she were elected president, she would continue defense and intelligence aid but would be “prudent” about sending weapons because she thinks the shipments could suck other countries into the war with Russia. 

Softening sanctions 

Le Pen’s campaign has successfully tapped into French voter frustration over rising inflation, which has worsened as a consequence of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions against Russia, a major gas supplier and trade partner for France and Europe. 

The European Union has been unusually unified in agreeing on five rounds of ever-tougher sanctions against Russia. If she became France’s president, Le Pen could try to thwart or limit additional EU sanctions since further action requires unanimous backing from the bloc’s 27 member nations. 

France is the EU’s No. 2 economy after Germany and key to EU decision-making. France also now holds the rotating EU presidency, giving France’s next leader significant influence. 

Le Pen is notably opposed to sanctions on Russian gas and oil. She also said in the past that she would work to lift sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea, and even recognize Crimea as part of Russia. 

Courting Putin 

Earlier in his first term, Macron tried reaching out to Putin, inviting him to Versailles and a presidential resort on the Mediterranean, in hopes of bringing Russia’s policies back into greater alignment with the West. 

The French president also sought to revive peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv over the long-running conflict in eastern Ukraine between the government and Russia-backed separatists. Macron visited Putin at the Kremlin weeks before Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine and has continued talking to the Russian leader during the war. At the same time, Macron has supported multiple rounds of EU sanctions. 

Le Pen’s party has deep ties to Russia. She met with Putin as a French presidential candidate in 2017 and has praised him in the past. She is warmly welcomed at Russian Embassy events in Paris, and her far-right party also got a 9 million euro loan from a Russian-Czech bank because she said French banks refused to lend the party money. 

Le Pen says the war in Ukraine has partly changed her mind about Putin, but she said Wednesday that the West should try to restore relations with Russia once the conflict ends. She suggested a “strategic rapprochement” between NATO and Russia to keep Moscow from allying too closely with China. 

Weakening NATO and the EU 

While Macron is a staunch defender of the EU and recently reinforced France’s participation in NATO operations in Eastern Europe, Le Pen says France should keep its distance from international alliances and strike its own path. 

She favors pulling France out of NATO’s military command, which would take French military staff out of the body that plans operations and lead to the country losing influence within the Western military alliance. 

France withdrew from NATO’s command structure in 1966, when French President Charles de Gaulle wanted to distance his country from the U.S.-dominated organization and reintegrated under conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy in 2009. 

If it were up to her, Le Pen would reduce French spending on the EU and try to diminish the EU’s influence by chipping away at the bloc from within while no longer recognizing that European law has primacy over national law. 

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Верещук назвала гуманітарні коридори, за якими сьогодні планується евакуація

За даними голови Луганської області, в регіоні вже евакуювали 32 тисячі людей

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Посольство Франції повертається до Києва – МЗС

«Це переміщення відбудеться найближчим часом і дозволить ще більше поглибити підтримку, яку Франція надає Україні»

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Єрмак обговорив «перспективи мирних переговорів» із радниками з нацбезпеки США та Великої Британії

«Ключова увага – механізму безпекових гарантій для України»

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Musk Spells Out How He Would Change Twitter

Hours after announcing his $43 billion hostile takeover bid for Twitter, business magnate Elon Musk laid out some of his goals for the social media giant, including an edit button that would let users amend ill-considered tweets.

Musk made the comments on the concluding day of the annual TED Conference in Vancouver. In a question-and-answer session, he said Twitter is the global town square and an important and inclusive area for free speech.

He said he has enough assets to cover the $43 billion purchase himself but did not divulge details of how he expects to finance the attempted takeover. If necessary, he said, he has a “Plan B” for acquiring the company.

Musk said if successful, he will make Twitter’s algorithms open source, introduce an edit button for people to change their tweets and will work to “ban the bot armies,” or automated computer programs, from the platform. The edit option will be available for only a limited time after a tweet is sent, he said.

In answering questions from TED head curator and organizer Chris Anderson, Musk also said that when tweets are changed, all retweets and likes to the original message will be deleted.

Musk also indicated that under his control, Twitter would be more reluctant to delete tweets that are of questionable taste or veracity and that when in doubt, he would allow a tweet to exist. But the platform would follow the laws of the different countries where it exists, he said.

Musk also was harshly critical of the San Francisco office of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, describing its staff as “those bastards.” The comment came in reference to fraud charges brought by the SEC regarding some 2,018 tweets that Musk sent claiming he had the funding to take his Tesla electric car company private.

In the settlement, Musk was forced to resign as chairman of Tesla, issue a $40 million payout to shareholders and have a lawyer approve his future tweets about the company. Musk said financial institutions forced him into the agreement, as if the SEC had been “holding a gun to your child’s head.” He agreed only to save the company, he said.

The 50-year-old entrepreneur, who also runs SpaceX and the Boring Company, announced the $43 billion takeover bid for Twitter just hours before arriving in Vancouver.

Last week, he purchased 9.2% of the company’s stock but subsequently turned down a seat on the company’s board of directors, which would have limited the amount he could own to 14.9%.

Musk said 2016 to 2018 were the worst years of his life, as Tesla encountered problems with the production of the Model 3. He said he now knows more about manufacturing than anybody on Earth after sleeping on the floors of assembly plants to work out the problems.

He also talked about building sustainable energy from wind, solar, hydro and geothermal, and repeated his support of nuclear power. He briefly talked about further developing robotic intelligence, saying the first robots to help people in everyday life are not far off. Musk said the robots will be affordable, but it should not be possible to update them remotely like computers or his Tesla vehicles.

Besides making these announcements in Vancouver, Musk has a personal tie to the city. The musician Grimes, whose real name is Claire Elise Boucher, is the mother of his two youngest children and grew up in the city, where she has family.

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Зеленський: за 50 днів вторгнення РФ показала, що Донбас для неї – «головна мішень»

«Саме Донбас Росія хоче знищити насамперед. Саме Луганську й Донецьку області російські війська руйнують так, ніби хочуть, щоб від них залишилося тільки каміння»

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Зеленський розповів про переговори з Макроном

«Обговорили розслідування російських злочинів, спротив українського народу загарбнику»

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As Calls Grow for Justice on Ukraine, ICC Steps Forward

Calls are mounting for Russia to face a legal reckoning for atrocities its forces are allegedly committing in Ukraine. Many activists are looking toward the Hague-based International Criminal Court, which last month opened a Ukraine war crimes investigation. But experts warn delivering justice will be slow, difficult and, in some cases, impossible.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan visited the Ukrainian town of Bucha Wednesday, as workers dug up bodies in black plastic bags from the earth. Russian soldiers are blamed for horrific rights violations there, including raping and executing Bucha residents.

Khan called Ukraine a “crime scene.”

“Every individual, particularly civilians, they have certain rights,” he said. “We must speak for them and we must insist that we get to the truth of what’s taken place, and judges will decide if there is responsibility.”

International outrage is growing over Russia’s actions in Ukraine. On Wednesday, the Vienna-based Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe accused Moscow of committing war crimes in some places — like deliberately attacking a maternity hospital and theater in the southeastern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol.

It also found Ukraine committed lesser violations. The OSCE’s investigation ended in early March, so does not cover more recent cases like Bucha.

U.S. President Joe Biden has called Russian leader Vladimir Putin a war criminal, and Russian actions in Ukraine a “genocide” — although others dispute that description.

The U.S. is not part of the ICC, and the Trump administration sanctioned some court members for probing alleged war crimes by U.S. soldiers in Afghanistan. Now, Washington is reportedly looking at how it can help the court on Ukraine.

So far, dozens of countries have referred the Ukraine war to the ICC. France sent experts to help Kyiv investigate possible war crimes. The European Union is increasing funding and other support to the Hague-based court for probing Ukraine atrocities.

Experts say prosecuting suspects and delivering justice won’t be easy. Neither Ukraine nor Russia are members of the ICC. As a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, Russia could hamper the U.N. court’s ability to hold it to account.

Still, Ukraine recognizes the ICC’s jurisdiction for crimes committed on its territory since 2014.

“I think there’s absolutely the possibility that war crimes will be prosecuted by the ICC. The … question will be who will be prosecuted by who,” said Carsten Stahn, a professor of international criminal law and global justice at Leiden University in the Netherlands and Queen’s University in Belfast, Northern Ireland.

Like some other experts, Stahn believes the ICC doesn’t have to shoulder the whole legal burden. Some alleged Ukraine war crimes cases could be handled by courts in countries like Germany, which have universal jurisdiction.

Another option, analysts say, is creating a special tribunal for Ukraine, like the ones created to judge the Rwandan genocide and the 1990s conflicts in the former Yugoslavia.

But while Russia’s lower ranking military officers may one day be held accountable for their alleged actions, experts say that’s unlikely to happen for top leadership — like President Vladimir Putin, barring a change in government.

“We’ve seen from the practice of the tribunals, the Yugoslavia tribunal, that as a regime is in power, it is very difficult to proceed with crimes, ongoing investigations,” Stahn said. “Because you will simply not be able to get hold of the perpetrators.”

Still, analysts say the ICC can help broader efforts to deliver justice and will create one more headache for the Kremlin.

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